Consider the following. First, bef-ore Covid-19, 50 per cent of rural India’s sch-ool-go-i--ng students in Class V cou--ld read a Class II textbook. This is data the Ann--ual Survey of Education Report (Rural) has highligh-ted since 2005. Second, prim-ary schools in some parts of India have been clo-s-ed for over 600 days, even though it is re-cognised that early--age education is critical to the future lea--rning trajectory of a chi-ld. My own primary sc-h-ool-going kids in Del-hi last ent-ered their school gate in Mar-ch 2020. India today has earned the unique disti-n-ction of the longest pandemic-in-d-u-ced sch-ool clo--sures in the world, with Uganda and Bolivia for company. Third, digital inequality is real and onl-i-ne education remains a privilege of the few. The 2021 ASER survey sho-ws that households of only 68 per cent school-going students own sma-rtph-o-nes. Over a quarter of these stude-nts do not have acc-ess to these smart-pho-nes, and therefore had no scho-oling for nearly two years. In Septe-m-ber 2021, a sur-vey of 1,400 school child-ren in und-er-privileged homes across 15 states by eco-no-mists Jean Dreze, Reetika Khe-ra and others, found mer-e-ly 8 per cent rural and 24 per cent urban children, had acc-ess to regular “online” education. ?
Education Is Key To Battling India’s Poverty Challenge
Intergenerational mobility in India is low. Those born poor are likely to stay poor, as inequities are entrenched. Now consider what two years of school closure will have done to widen the vast gap.
As a parent, I have witnessed the emo--tional, psychological and educational cost prolonged school closure has had on my young children. Studying in a Zoom room is no substit-ute for a classroom. We will never make up for what they’ve lost. But at lea-st my kids have the Zoom room. Most of India does not have this privil-ege. An ASER surv-ey in Kar-nataka, done before the second wave—the only comp-a-rative data we have on learning levels before and during the pandemic—highlights the gravity of what we face. In 2018, 19.2 per cent Cla-ss III stu-dents in rur-al Karnataka were at grade level (i.e., they cou-ld read a Class II textb-o-ok). It dropped to 9.8 per cent in 2020. In 2018, 26.3 per cent students could do simple subtraction. In 2020, a mere 17.3 per cent could do the same.
These losses are not going to be easy to address. In an import-a-nt study, economist and my CPR col--league Jis-h--nu Das and others trace the long-term fallout of four months of school closure after the 2005 eart-h-quake in Pak--istan. They fou-nd just four mon--ths of school clos-ures resul-ted in persist-ent learning losses thr-ough the stu--dent’s school life and estimate that if these losses continue into adu-lt life, children cou-ld sta-nd to lose 15 per cent of their life-time earni-ngs. Now consider the effect nearly two yea-rs of school closures could cause. ?
Our education system is best described as a sor--t-ing mechanism, where foc-us is on, as Nobel lau-re-a-tes Abhi-jit Ban-erjee and Est-her Duflo desc-ribe, “teaching to the top of the class”. It works for the “best” students. After all, India produces some of the world’s brightest. The problem has alw--ays been for the vast majority who are left beh-ind. Eco---nomist Lant Pritchett est-imates that four of five children who start the sch--ool year unable to read, will lik-e-ly make no significant progress on reading thro-ugh the year. Low levels of educatio-nal attainment is one reason for persistent inequ-ality in India. Des-pite overall reduction in poverty, intergeneratio-nal upward mobility in India is low. Those born poor are likely to stay poor, as they are unable to realise their full capability. When inequ-ities are entrenched, growth drags. Consider what two years of school closure will do to wid-en this gap. This is Ind-ia’s ine-quality challenge. ?
All this is surmountable if we as a society come together to make education a national priority. But the muted outrage to two years of sch---ool clos-ure, the alacrity with which we have res-umed soc-ial and economic activity while insi-s-ting schools remain closed, and the complete imp-unity of our political class who have been com--p-li-cit in these decisions, leave me with little hope. Our celebr-a-ted demographic dividend is today a ticking time bomb. And we have only ourselves to blame.
(Views expressed are personal)
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Yamini Aiyar is the president and CEO of Centre for Policy Research, Delhi
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