Caste Your Vote: Why A Caste Census Could Radically Change India’s Political Map

Decades after OBC reservations have ceased to breathe fire, the next demand on the social justice agenda, a caste census, has set the cat among the pigeons. The demand generated heat in the UPA days, a socio-economic caste census was commissioned, but no data have been released yet. Now, counting caste in the 2021 census has emerged as a major demand of some political parties, as key assembly elections approach.

The reason: caste combinations, if played well, can carve out vote banks and also provide a -potential space for political players at a time when the BJP has successfully crafted a large electoral alliance of the so-called upper castes, large sections of the OBCs and also groups among Dalits. With assembly elections due next year in a few states, caste equations and caste-based -alliances are already taking shape in states like Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Punjab.

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The two most talked about political events in recent weeks were the induction of new chief ministers in the poll-bound states of Punjab and Gujarat, largely based on caste considerations. A year away from elections, the induction of a new chief minister in Gujarat from the most influential Patidar community is construed by many as a strategic move by the ruling BJP to fight incumbency by balancing caste equations in the state. In a similar vein, the Congress appointed the first Dalit chief minister to counter factionalism in its ranks in poll-bound Punjab, which boasts the highest proportion of Dalits in the country. And the battle for control of Uttar Pradesh—which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha—has already begun ahead of the 2022 assembly polls with caste battles drawn up.

After 30 years of Mandal politics, a renewed -demand for a caste census to count the number of OBCs—who account for the largest vote chunk in the country—has turned into a political hot -potato. While all the parties are conducting ‘OBC sammelans’ to woo the community, the ruling BJP has gone a step ahead by inducting 27 cabinet ministers from the OBC category in the -recent ministry reshuffle by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “Apart from 27 cabinet ministers, we have a fair representation of OBCs in our party, including deputy chief minister Keshav Maurya and party’s state president Swatantra Dev Singh,” says Harichandra Srivastava, the BJP’s spokesperson for UP.

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The Mandal Commission has pegged the OBC population at 52 per cent, while the NSSO in 2007 said the group constitutes 41 per cent. In the absence of a caste census for any caste or -category apart from SCs and STs since 1931, precise caste numbers are unknown. Currently, as per an old ruling by the Supreme Court, the quota for OBCs is capped at 27 per cent in government jobs. Reservation to the tune of 22.5 per cent in central government jobs already exists for SCs and STs. Different states have varying quotas for SCs, STs and OBCs. With the vexed issue of caste census making its entry, every political entity is trying to woo the OBCs, who are the king--makers in electoral calculations.

The long-standing demand by social justice parties for conducting a nationwide caste -census assumed political significance after Parliament unanimously passed a constitutional amendment during the monsoon session in August, -restoring the right of state governments to draw up their own lists of OBCs. The growing chorus for a caste-based survey has even put the ruling BJP-led NDA in a fix, with allies like JD(U), Apna Dal and Ramdas Athawale’s Republican Party of India—as well as some of BJP’s own parliamentarians—-making the demand.

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These demands have surfaced from time to time, but successive governments have avoided enumerating caste populations. In July, the Union government informed Parliament it wouldn’t undertake a caste-based survey as a policy matter, and that it would only enumerate SCs and STs, as is the practice, in the forthcoming 2021 census. The JD(U) says this is a retreat from the government’s earlier position in 2018, when then Union home minister Rajnath Singh had promised a caste-based -survey to count the OBCs. The issue has even forced the Opposition and the ruling parties in Bihar to take a united stand.

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In an unusual gesture, an 11-member delegation comprising Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar as well as Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav met the prime minister to submit their demand for a caste census. Senior JD(U) leader and former Union minister Upendra Kushwaha says, “Our demand is that, besides enumerating SCs and STs, there should also be a column for socially and educationally backward classes (SEBC) while conducting -census operations. How can we decide policy for the deprived without enumerating them?” The National Commission for Backward Classes also appealed to the government to carry out a caste-based survey to count the OBCs.

A caste-based survey is essential to ascertain the exact number of OBCs in the state, says Ashish Patel, working president of Apna Dal, BJP’s crucial ally in Uttar Pradesh. OBCs are -believed to constitute about 40 per cent of Uttar Pradesh’s population. “Government schemes and policies will reach the backward community only if they are counted. OBCs comprise a big chunk of the state’s population and have played a significant role in forming NDA governments since 2014. I am confident that the PM will fulfil our demand,” says Patel, whose wife Anupriya was recently inducted into the Union cabinet.

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Surveys by Lokniti-CSDS show OBC votes have contributed some outstanding victories to the BJP in the last decade. In the 2017 assembly polls in UP, the BJP got 58 per cent of OBC votes, while the Congress-SP coalition got just 18 per cent. Mayawati’s BSP, which champions the cause of backward classes, got just 11 per cent of OBC votes. Data also show 22 per cent OBCs voted BJP in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, and that the vote share doubled to 44 per cent in 2019. The outreach to the backward community will pay dividends in this election too, says Swatantra Dev Singh, the BJP’s UP president.

“The OBC community is firmly rallied behind the BJP…because the entire community is -beneficiary of various schemes implemented by BJP governments at the state and the Centre. Dalits and the most backward got due benefits under the Yogi Adityanath government. The PM’s schemes have instilled hope and confidence among backward communities. PM Modi also belongs to the OBC community. That’s one of the reasons that the backward community is solidly behind us,” adds Singh.

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However, Opposition parties—Samajwadi Party (SP), BSP and the Congress, which is on a decline in UP—are seeing the caste-census -dem-and as a godsend to embarrass the Centre. The government’s dilly-dallying on caste census has raised the SP’s hopes of reclaiming some of its non-Yadav OBC votes, which have shifted to the BJP since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

However, the electoral impact of a possible caste census is still unknown. While it may make social justice parties more assertive, the BJP may look to sub-classify the OBCs to -consolidate its non-Yadav OBC vote bank in north India. The Justice G. Rohini Commission is looking at sub-categorisation of OBCs. “The BJP has taken a U-turn from its earlier stand of conducting a caste census. It shows they do not believe in real representation based on data,” says SP leader Ghanshyam Tiwari.

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Another Mandal Wave? The demand for caste census has also opened crucial questions on the 50 per cent cap on reservations, and whether a caste-based survey will lead to another wave of Mandal politics, which transformed the political landscape of India. G. Mohan Gopal, former -director of the National Judicial Academy of the Supreme Court, believes OBC numbers should be counted for better planning of policies.

Though the UPA government under Manmohan Singh conducted a Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) under pressure from social justice parties in 2011, the caste data never saw the light of day. The Congress has recently constituted a committee headed by former Union minister Veerappa Moily to look into it. “Currently, we only have data that are based on the 1931 census. The committee will review the 2011 SECC report,” says Moily.

There are apprehensions that a caste-based census may lead to a precarious situation, like what the country witnessed after implementation of Mandal Commission recommendations in the early 1990s. Rahul Verma of the Centre for Policy Research, however, dismisses such theories. “During Mandal, there was no consensus among parties. The demand for caste census is a long-standing one and there is consensus. Once it culminates into something, we will see a big shift in Indian politics since it’s going to change the discourse of not just OBCs, but the entire political spectrum,” says Verma.

He reckons that if the government decides to conduct a caste census, then the recommendations of Justice Rohini Commission should be published in order to have a list of castes to prepare a clear roadmap. The Justice Rohini Commission, which was set up in 2017, is yet to submit its report. “Preparing a list of castes is a political act, not a merely statistical or demographic exercise,” Verma says, adding that it’s going to be an arduous task. “We know, or at least we have heard or read, that there are some 2,500 castes among the OBC list and 1,000 have not got any representation. So what is going to be the provision to bring these smaller non-dominant OBC communities into the framework so that they also get the benefit of reservation?” he asks.

Political scientist Gilles Verniers believes a caste-based census may not materialise for political reasons. “They may not want to deal with the political uncertainty that derives from the exercise since political parties, when they are in power, are very cautious,” he says. According to Verniers, it’s not in the BJP’s interest to anger its own upper-caste base by reinforcing backward reservation. The upper castes, after all, stand to lose from a reinforcement of the quota regime. He reckons that having proper data would reopen the debate about the quota ceiling, the order distribution mechanism and more.

Verniers points out that the BJP’s strategy in UP in 2017 involved mobilising any group not aligned with the SP or BSP. “Almost half of the BJP legislators in the state are upper caste, and about 16 or 17 per cent are ST, leaving a small -residual space for OBCs. Within that, there are a large number of smaller caste or non-dominant OBCs, which does not make a cohesive group. These are also castes competing against one -another for portfolios and resources,” he adds.

Analysts point out that non-dominant OBC groups deserted social justice parties SP and BSP, as affirmative action hasn’t benefited them politically or otherwise. There is also a perception that benefits were limited to influential castes like Yadavs and Kurmis. Figures also show that BJP’s vote share of ‘other OBCs’ rose from 17 per cent to 60 per cent between 2012 and 2014. Will the BJP’s acceptance among these ‘Other OBCs’ continue in 2022? Though the party is trying to keep the small parties in its fold, it faces challenges from former allies such as Om Prakash Rajbhar (SBSP), who has broken the alliance with the BJP government on the issue of reservation. With SP also wooing the smaller parties into its fold, the battle for UP may still be open.

Another BJP ally, NISHAD party, is also upping the ante. Representing the riverine community, it also holds considerable influence among its voters. Party leader Sanjay Nishad says the BJP needs to address the community’s long-standing demand to be inducted in the SC category. Curre-ntly, it is among the OBCs. “We have allied with parties like SP, BSP and Congress, but all of them have exploited us. BJP is yet to fulfil our demands on reservation. But they haven’t troubled us like other parties,” he tells Outlook.

(This appeared in the print edition as "Caste Iron Furnace")

(With inputs from Vikas Pathak)