The happenings of the previous week in the Pawar clan – the nephew being incommunicado, cancelling all his appointments, and meeting MLAs of the party even as the same was denied by his uncle – indicate that Ajit Pawar is giving a last spirited dash to challenge his uncle’s hold over the NCP. The NCP may not split immediately but it certainly cannot be avoided. With the BJP on a poaching prowl to break up the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) by splitting up the political parties that constitute it, there is no guarantee that Ajit Pawar will continue to stay in the NCP, subdued and marginalized by his uncle Sharad Pawar’s political machinations. The BJP has already engineered a split in the Shiv Sena and is now attempting to break up the Congress Party and the NCP. “This will happen before the 2024 elections. The disgruntled leaders of the Congress Party are easy prey as they see no electoral future for the party. There is a group waiting to go to the BJP,” said a senior Shiv Sena (UBT) leader.

Political analysts believe that the political scenario in Maharashtra is set to change in the coming months before the elections next year. Many leaders in the MVA own sugar mills, spinning mills, educational institutions, banks and are also directors on the board of cooperative banks. While the Enforcement Directorate has started searches in many of these institutions, including that of Ajit Pawar, the threat of further searches has left the leaders gasping for political breath. Given that many of the NCP leaders are facing probes, they feel aligning with Ajit Pawar is a safer option. If he goes to the BJP, his supporters will follow. The nephew has the support of 40 of the 53 MLAs of the party – a sizeable number that can collapse the NCP. Ajit Pawar’s aggressive leadership has a bigger fan following than any other leader of the NCP can command in Maharashtra.

“On one hand is the political stability of the NCP and the other is the promotion of Supriya Sule (his daughter) as the national face of the party. The continued denial of Ajit Pawar’s ambition to be the chief minister by Sharad Pawar will split the NCP,” says Shailesh Bhatt, a political researcher.

At a recent interaction organised with Ajit Pawar by Sakal (the Pawar family-owned Marathi newspaper), the leader had heaped praises on the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, referring to him as a charismatic leader who faced no competition. The Economic Offences Wing of the Mumbai Police had in November 2022, sought to probe the links of firms linked to Ajit Pawar and his family in the Maharashtra State Cooperative Bank (MSCB) scam. In November 2021. The Income Tax department had provisionally attached several assets worth Rs 1000 crore of the leader, who was then the deputy chief minister under the Benami Property Transactions Act, 1988. In the second week of April, the names of Ajit Pawar and his wife Sunetra were omitted from the chargesheet filed by ED in the MSCB scam. However, the companies linked to the family that came up during the probe have been mentioned in the chargesheet which was filed recently.

A coup in the making?

According to sources, the BJP is attempting a similar coup as that done with the Shiv Sena in June 2022, then headed by Uddhav Thackeray, the former chief minister. Eknath Shinde – now the chief minister of Maharashtra – had split the Shiv Sena, when in an overnight coup he had stealthily left for Surat in the BJP-ruled Gujarat, taking 40 of the 57 MLAs of the Shiv Sena with him. Thackeray quit and Shinde formed the government with the BJP.?

In the present scenario, Ajit Pawar, too, has the support of 40 MLAs of his party, leaving his uncle holding on to a mere 13. The loss of the national party status of the NCP has also made the party men jittery about their political futures. In the Sakal interview televised live on Thursday evening, Ajit Pawar told the audience that he will certainly stake claim to the chief minister’s post if the MVA came back to power in Maharashtra. Political analysts feel that by saying this, he sent a strong message to Sharad Pawar who continues to push Thackeray as the face of the coalition.

A sizeable number of the 45 MLAs of the Congress Party are keen on switching sides to the BJP as they are either being probed or likely to be probed by ED in the months leading to the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls in 2024. With the party’s electoral share on a steady wane, leaders here are looking for options to stay politically relevant. The Congress Party leadership too has not taken steps to contain disgruntlement within its ranks. “Ashish Deshmukh is the best example. Though he has been vociferously rebellious about the party leadership, rather than a show-cause notice he has faced no other action. He is a spent force without much political relevance in the Congress Party, yet, he continues to be there taking potshots at the leadership. Prithviraj Chavan (also a former chief minister) is another example of a disgruntled leader at loggerheads with the leadership,” said a political analyst.

Interestingly, a sizeable number of the 17 MLAs who support Thackeray face probe too. BJP leader Kirit Somaiya has been filing numerous applications under the Right To Information Act, seeking information and probe status on the properties owned by Thackeray and his wife Rashmi. “Uddhavji and the Shiv Sena are fighters. Let them do what they want, we will not buckle,” says Arvind Sawant, Shiv Sena (UBT) MP.

History repeats itself

Maharashtra is not new to the politics of uncles and nephews and the political strife within these families. From Balasaheb Thackeray-Raj Thackeray, Gopinath Munde-Dhananjay Mundhe, Sunil Tatkare-Avdhoot Tatkare, Balasaheb Thorat-Satyajeet Tambe to Sharad Pawar-Ajit Pawar, all these powerful political families have seen the bitterest of feuds rising out of ambition. In all these cases, the nephews have been the political shadows of their powerful uncles but when it came to anointing a political heir, the nephews tumbled out of favour.

In the case of the Pawar clan, their political rivalries within the family, though intense, have largely been beneath the surface. Like the Ajit Pawar-Supriya Sule rivalry, the fourth generation of the clan, cousins Rohit and Parth Pawar, too are caught up in establishing a hold in the second rung space of the NCP. Beneath the appearance of toeing the line of the family patriarch and the layers of warmth, is a hardening layer of ambition pushing its way up to the top. Parth, the son of Ajit Pawar, is Sharad Pawar’s grand nephew just like Rohit. Sources say that Ajit Pawar’s anger stems from his frustration of being manipulated by his uncle. Like an ‘unguided missile’, he has kept his options with the BJP, particularly with Fadnavis, open.

Political talk of Ajit Pawar aligning with the BJP does not sound a far-fetched idea, say his own partymen. MLAs considered to be close to Ajit Pawar have come out in support of him. “I had supported him in 2019, when he formed the government with Devendra Fadnavis. I will support him in whatever decision he takes,” says Anna Bansode, a loyalist of the nephew. Another loyalist Manikrao Kokate says that a majority of the 53 NCP MLAs will join the BJP if Ajit Pawar does so.

Meanwhile, Sanjay Shirsat - spokesman for the Shiv Sena faction headed by Eknath Shinde – told the media that his party will not share power with the NCP. “The NCP leaders are restless. It was the same with the Shiv Sena before the party was divided,” says Shirsat. According to him, Ajit Pawar does not accept the leadership of Uddhav Thackeray. If Ajit Pawar leaves the NCP and joins the BJP, we will stay with the government. But if he leaves with some MLAs and comes to the BJP, we will leave the government,” says Shirsat.

The major flash-point in last week’s near rebellion by Ajit Pawar is linked to Thackeray’s growing popularity with uncle Sharad Pawar. Adding to this is the frustration regarding his son’s political ambitions being pushed on the back burner by his uncle while promoting Rohit as a new leader from the Pawar clan. Despite the displeasure of his uncle, Ajit Pawar had pushed Parth to contest the Lok Sabha polls in 2019, from the party’s stronghold Maval to Shrirang Barne. Sources say that Pawar has not forgiven Ajit Pawar, nor his son, for this blind-sighted manoeuvre which cost the NCP its stronghold. Rohit, who had contested the polls as well, is an incumbent MLA of the NCP. Then, an angry Sharad Pawar had withdrawn from contesting the Lok Sabha polls saying that it was not fair to the NCP workers to have so many members of the Pawar family contesting the elections. Despite this, Ajit Pawar did not relent.

At crossroads

Unlike other political parties, the NCP has a strong second-rung leadership. They have been groomed and mentored by Sharad Pawar and are waiting quietly for their turn to lead. With talks of succession gaining ground within the NCP and Supriya Sule’s elevated leadership status, Ajit Pawar’s frustration has become more compounded.?

In the eventuality of Sule being anointed as the political successor of her father, the BJP-leaning Ajit will not give up without a fight. The fact that nearly 40 of the NCP’s 53 MLAs support Ajit Pawar indicates that they are now in a mood to exit the MVA and go to a party that will offer them power.?

Since its formation, the NCP has not been able to form a government on its own in Maharashtra. It has always taken a piggyback ride to be in power – first with the Congress Party and later with the Shiv Sena-Congress Party in the MVA coalition. Many in the BJP want to align with its former ally Thackeray, despite the latter ruling out the possibility. However, any realignment between Thackeray and the BJP, will adversely impact the NCP.

Despite winning the maximum seats in the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP with 105 seats had to sit on the Opposition benches, while the NCP, Congress Party and the Shiv Sena had formed the government only due to the deft moves of Pawar senior. The NCP chief has an enviable network of informants across the political divide but he is aware that his nephew is the weakest link in the Pawar clan. After the November 2019 pre-dawn coup by Ajit Pawar, he has been marginalised within the NCP. Though, a disciplined mass-based leader with an understanding of the pulse of the people across the state, the trust deficit has hit his political ambitions.

Like his uncle’s ambition to be the Prime Minister, the nephew harbours the ambition to be the chief minister. However, with Sule being covertly pitched as a contender for the “first woman CM” position in Maharashtra if the NCP comes back to power, Ajit Pawar’s ambitions may just be eclipsed, say senior NCP sources. Presently, while the state NCP is controlled by senior leader Jayant Patil, the national affairs are handled by Sule, leaving the 63-year-old Ajit Pawar with little leeway to lead. Thackeray’s growing popularity amongst the masses since the split in the Shiv Sena last year is also a concern for the NCP. If the MVA comes back to power in the 2024 Assembly polls, then Thackeray may yet again be the CM and Ajit Pawar could be the deputy CM – a position he has to compromise upon due to his uncle’s political understanding with Thackeray.

If the Supreme Court verdict on the disqualification of 16 MLAs (including Shinde) on a petition filed by the Thackeray group goes against the chief minister, then the state government will collapse. Therefore, Ajit Pawar emerges as an important link for the BJP in the eventuality of their staking claim to form a new government in Maharashtra. The threat of disqualification hanging over Shinde and his MLAs like the Damocles Sword, has made the chief minister jittery, say those in the know.