Indian Monsoon Expected To Be Above Normal: IMD Prediction For 2024

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts indicate monsoon rains at 106 per cent of the long-term average for the year.

Outlook Web Desk

Updated on: 15 April 2024 3:08 pm

Indian Monsoon Expected To Be Above Normal In 2024 | Photo: File representative image

India is likely to receive above-average monsoon rains in 2024, the Indian Meteorological Department said on Monday. The IMD forecasts indicate monsoon rains at 106 per cent of the long-term average for the year.

During the press conference, IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the historical data from 1951 to 2023 shows that India experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall on nine occasions following La Nina events that followed El Nino patterns.

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"India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106 per cent of the long-period average (87 cm)," he said.

In 2023, India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall of 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm, which was attributed to it being an El Nino year. Prior to 2023, India had recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four consecutive years.

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About El Ni?o And La Ni?a Weather Patterns

El Ni?o and La Ni?a are major weather patterns affecting global climate. El Ni?o refers to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, while La Ni?a describes cooler-than-average sea temperatures. Both phenomena have substantial impacts on Earth's weather patterns.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Ni?o events occur more frequently than La Ni?a.

On average, El Ni?o and La Ni?a events occur every two to seven years and typically last between nine to 12 months, although some instances can persist for years.