Despite UK Court's Extradition Order, Here's Why Vijay Mallya May Not Land In India Soon

But the most important question is when exactly will that happen?

—U.K. Home Office will take up to eight weeks to approve the deportation. (There is at least a week of Christmas and New Year vacations in between).

—There are also feelers from within the Indian community in the U.K. that Mallya is trying to create a case for political asylum, citing he is being made a scapegoat for political gain. If indeed he is planning it, this is when Mallya is likely to make such a plea

—Mallya, having lost the case, can appeal to the U.K. High Court

—The High Court may stay the extradition order till it takes a decision.

—That should take no more than eight to nine months.

(Mallya’s extradition case has been decided within a year after it was instituted.)

—Mallya can appeal the High Court’s decision in the Supreme Court if the ruling judge himself/herself gives permission.

Outlook had earlier reported that Mallya could escape deportation till September 2019.

Other possibilities

—There are talks of a possible settlement with Mallya

—Mallya has made an offer in the Karnataka High Court

—The offer may not compound the criminal charges against him unless the government agrees on a deal

—Indian government has not made any moves for working out settlement

—The extradition order gives it an edge in negotiations

—Ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP government will want to show this extradition order as fulfilling its anti-corruption mandate and bringing offenders to book.

—That significantly dents Mallya’s hopes of getting a settlement before May 2019, if at all.

—Mallya’s friends in India say that he is interested in paying back dues, though he now claims he did not take the money, the company did.

—There has been additional pressure for him to make the offer after a new law here that could confiscate the property of fugitive offenders.

—The Arthur Road prison in Mumbai has made special arrangements to house Mallya since he objected to prison conditions in India.

What are the charges in India?

—Default by Kingfisher Airlines of Rs 9,000-crore loan from a consortium of Indian banks, led by the State Bank of India

—Violating terms of the loan and following the later restructuring of the loan

—Both the CBI and the ED have drawn up charge sheets against him for all the violations, including siphoning off money from the loan

—In 2016, a controversial flip-flop by the CBI allowed Mallya to enter the country three times despite a lookout notice

—The CBI said that it did not have sufficient material to arrest him

—There are two top CBI officials involved in the case:

RK Asthana, special director-CBI – pursued the extradition case, often traveling personally to attend the extradition proceedings.

AK Sharma, joint director, CBI – Congress president Rahul Gandhi accused him of diluting the lookout notice that allowed Mallya to leave India in 2016 and subsequently he refused to return citing a politically-motivated case against him.