If the CIA Had Butted Out ...

And imagine if his government had been allowed to assumeits obligations and responsibilities, as stipulated by the 1906 constitution,and if the shah had been allowed to reign but not rule, as again stipulated bythe Iranian constitution, and imagine if Britain and the U.S. had not been eggedon by oil companies livid over Mossadeq's nationalization of oil interests inIran but instead had stayed out of Iran's business and not intervened. Imaginewhat would have likely happened.

Had the coup never taken place, Iran probably would havegone on to build a sturdy, inclusive democracy that would have brought about afar more durable stability than what the shah--forever tainted in the eyes ofhis people as a weak, easily manipulated Western puppet--ever managed todeliver.

Had the coup never taken place, democratic Iran would havelong ago done away with the myth that Islam and democracy are incompatible. Moreimportant, nationalist and anti-colonialist as it was, Iran would havehandsomely served as the model to follow for the dozens of Arab and Muslimstates that had recently gained, or were about to gain, independence fromcolonial occupation, thus averting their alignment with the Soviet bloc as wellas the rise of homegrown thugs and dictators.

Had the coup never taken place, the ayatollahs, who hadsupported the coup against Mossadeq, would never have gained their politicalclout. Indeed, the shah saw in the conservative ayatollahs the perfect partnersagainst the radicalism of the left and the liberalism of the middle class.

Had the coup never taken place and the ayatollahs neverbeen given the political clout they had enjoyed under the shah, the Juneuprising of 1963, which was fueled by the clerics' unhappiness with the shah'sattempts at modernization, would also have never taken place.

Hence no harsh crackdown would have followed the uprising,nor would have a little-known cleric, a certain Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,gained international attention as the spiritual leader of that confrontationagainst the shah.

Had the coup never taken place, Khomeini would haveremained a little-known cleric. Instead, he was exiled for 14 years, a timeduring which he cultivated his image from that of a charismatic leader to thatof a sacred returning messiah. And during those 14 years, the prospect for theemergence of a truly democratic Iran grew dimmer while Islamic radicalism,associating all that is Western with the hated shah and hissupporters--principally the U.S.--took a deeper hold on the passions of anincreasingly frustrated younger generation.

Had the coup never taken place, there would not have been ahostage crisis, and neither would the U.S. have severed its relations with Iranand imposed economic sanctions. Both actions, more than 20 years later, remainin effect to this day.

Had the coup never taken place, Saddam Hussein would havenever dared invade Iran in September 1980. The U.S. would never have sided withIraq's dictator and neither would it have committed itself to a policy ofensuring that Iraq not lose the war. It would not have supplied Hussein withcrucial assistance or turned a blind eye to his egregious crimes against hispeople.

Had the coup never taken place, Hussein would not havefound himself by the end of the war against Iran as the commander of one of thelargest armies in the Middle East.

More important, he would have never been under theimpression that, as long as he restricted his aggression to fellow Muslims andkept off Israel, the world would only decry and condemn him but never act.

Had the coup never taken place, chances are that Iraq neverwould have invaded Kuwait, and the U.S. never would have had to orchestrate amassive military campaign against his army, let alone establish bases on Saudisoil. It would not have rendered talk about human rights and international lawtotally meaningless and hypocritical to Arab and Muslim ears.

Imagine a new era of foreign policy--an era in whichinternational law is taken seriously, respected, in which sovereign democraciesare encouraged, nurtured, applauded, rather than fought against, stifled andkilled. Imagine if we abandoned, once and for all the poisonous doctrines of"Iron Chancellor" Bismarck and Henry Kissinger and instead subscribedto those of Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. Imagine if we took theUnited Nations and The Hague seriously, rather than treating them as kangaroocourts in which only those causes championed by the mighty and powerful werepursued with vigor, while other grievances were neglected and scorned.

How many millions of lives would we have saved, and howmuch safer and more prosperous would the world be today?

(Ahmed Bouzid is president of PalestineMedia Watch. This piece originally appeared in LosAngeles Times, October 21 2001. By arrangement with Znet?)