NASA Maps Once-In-A-Million Year Florida Floods| When Will Hurricane Beryl Hit Florida?

A moisture plume from the western Caribbean brought heavy rains to Florida's Gulf Coast, with a slow-moving storm system prompting flash flood warnings and road closures across the region.

The map released by NASA Earth Observatory illustrates the accumulation of rainfall during the 24-hour period of heaviest downpour. While Florida is no stranger to heavy rains, this recent deluge is a once-in-500-to-1,000-year event.

Sarasota County experienced some of the most intense rainfall on June 11. The National Weather Service (NWS) station in Sarasota recorded 6.5 inches of rain in 24 hours, shattering the previous record of 2.5 inches set in 1940. Nearby areas received up to 10 inches of rain, with the Sarasota Bradenton Airport reporting a record 3.9 inches in just one hour at 7 pm, nearly an inch more than the previous hourly record. Typically, Sarasota sees 7 inches of rain for the entire month of June.

Further south, Fort Myers and Naples also set new daily precipitation records on June 11. Miami nearly broke its rainfall record, resulting in hundreds of flight delays and cancellations at Miami and Fort Lauderdale airports, significantly affecting aviation operations, according to NWS measurements.

Meteorologists have noted that such extreme rainfall events statistically occur only once every 500 to 1,000 years. The rainfall data, sourced from the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM under the Global Precipitation Measurement mission, might differ from ground-based measurements.

Forecasts predict continued heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding across Florida as tropical moisture interacts with a stationary front to the north. This rain has provided some relief from the drought conditions affecting Central and South Florida, underscoring the region's vulnerability to both drought and flood extremes.

When will Hurricane Beryl hit Florida?

Hurricane Beryl is currently entering the Caribbean, with a projected path south of the Greater Antilles. Beryl will likely stay away from Florida, but parts of the Gulf Coast will need to monitor the storm closely beyond the Fourth of July.

High forecast confidence in Beryl's short-term track is due to a high-pressure dome that is expected to protect Florida from direct impacts. However, this high-pressure feature may weaken after the Fourth of July, creating uncertainty about the path of the trailing disturbance.

Current models suggest that the secondary system will move through the central and western Caribbean. While not an immediate threat to Florida, there is a chance the system could lift north earlier if the high-pressure dome shifts away from the southeastern U.S. and a dip in the jet stream develops over the Rockies.

This scenario could occur during the second week of July, making it challenging to predict the exact path. Alternatively, the system might stay suppressed in the Western Caribbean if it encounters a large dome of high pressure to its west.