The New Space Age: Humanity’s Future Is In The Stars, Tracing The Steps To Humans Being A Spacefaring Race

— James and Gregory Benford

Modern humans first appeared around 3,00,000 years ago.?

For the next 2,90,000 years, modern humans —homo sapiens— were a moving species that hunted animals, gathered nature’s produce, and scavenged the leftovers of others’.?

Then, around 10,000 years ago, humans began to settle and started practising agriculture.?

Once humans began farming, they started settling in the true sense of the word. The rise of the first villages in West Asia marked the beginning of the end of a way of life that had been there for millenniums. Villages paved the way to cities and, by around 5,000 years ago, first urban centres emerged.

Human history, in a way, is a story of migrations — migration of homo sapiens to all parts of Earth from Africa, spread of ideas, migration of crops from one place to another, etc. With the settling down of humans, the nature of human migration changed. Humans moved around not because that was the only way of life known to them, but they moved around for the sake of curiosity and betterment — for better pastures, better livelihood, better soil, or to seek the worlds beyond the far-off hills and seas.

Then, as humans mastered the boats, they began to leave the shores for the world beyond the horizon.?

By the 20th century, space was the final frontier left unexplored. In 1897, HG Wells had completed the novel The War of the Worlds, mainstreaming the idea of?beings from space. The phrase itself —the final frontier— was immortalised in the opening narration of Star Trek. In one of the most iconic science-fiction monologues, Captain James T Kirk called space the final frontier and laid out the purpose of spacefaring: “to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilisations, to boldly go where no man has gone before”.

Space scientist Sudip Bhattacharyya says that spacefaring is as natural to us as seafaring was to our ancestors.?

“Spacefaring is not a science fiction fantasy. It is as real as the seafaring of our ancestors. At this time, we are at the very beginning of an exploratory phase. The migration and spreading will almost certainly follow,” says Bhattacharya, Professor, Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR), Mumbai.

One argument for humans being a spacefaring race with interplanetary existence is that Earth’s resources are limited and are getting scarce?by the day. As a back-up against human-induced climate change, or events beyond human control such as supervolcanic eruptions or meteor strikes, this line of argument says,?we need to make a home beyond Earth to ensure the continuity of humanity. But there is another line of argument for spacefaring.?

Spacefaring is the logical next step for the human race as we are fundamentally curious beings who believe in exploring the world around us, says space engineering expert Matteo Ceriotti.?

“Exploration is innate to human nature. First of all, obviously, we explored the Earth, and then we expanded to the Solar System and then beyond. With telescopes today, we are able to look well beyond the Solar System. So, there is this desire of knowing more and exploring more because humankind has always been driven by this desire,” says Ceriotti, Senior Lecturer in Space Systems Engineering at School of Engineering, University of Glasgow, Scotland.

Ceriotti says that there is a short-term vision and a long-term vision of spacefaring.?

He tells Outlook, “In the short term, space exploration is driven by the urge to learn. In the long term, the desire is to have an option to be a spacefaring, interplanetary race and, for that, we need to start the work now.”

The case for spacefaring, interplanetary life

“If our long-term survival is at stake, we have a basic responsibility to our species to venture to other worlds.”

— Carl Segan

While the wealthy elite have started taking trips to the edge of space, the call for human spacefaring is not defined by touristic instincts. It’s about the future of humanity — not of 10 or 20 years but long-term.?

Theoretical physicist Michio Kaku in his book The Future of Humanity writes that all species invariably meet three fates: they leave their environment, they adapt to it, or they die.?

“But if we look far enough into the future, we will eventually face a disaster so great that adaptation will be virtually impossible. Either we must leave the Earth or we will perish. There is no other way,” writes Kaku, the co-founder of string field theory and professor at City University of New York.

While people often bring out climate change to press for the call of interplanetary life, Ceriotti of University of Glasgow says that several factors beyond human control are at play here,?such as a large meteorite strike,?says Ceriotti.?

While we track meteorites and we have ways to deal with them, we might not be able to track or prevent all meteorite strikes and even one large-scale localised strike could be very devastating, says Ceriotti.?

Now, we are at the dawn of the New Space Age. Chandrayaan-3 of India is set to be the first spacecraft to land in the uncharted territories of the South Pole of the Moon. In next few years, Chandrayaan-3 would be followed by the Artemis-III mission of the United States on the Lunar South Pole that would mark the return of humanity to the Moon for the first time in over five decades. The touchdown of Artemis-III would be different from the landing of the previous generation of astronauts starting from Neil Armstrong and Edwin ‘Buzz’ Aldrin.?

The Artemis space programme is aimed at making the Moon the stepping stone —kind of a base camp— for Mars and beyond. The programme is not part of a space race of the Cold War where planting the flag first is the goal. The goal this time is to have a sustained, long-term presence of the Moon. Within two decades of Artemis-III, humanity seeks to land on Mars and have a base there by the end of the century.

Eccentric billionaire Elon Musk envisions a city of a million people on Mars by the end of the century. As the boss of SpaceX, the company that pioneered rocketry and spacefaring, he is definitely a person of authority on the subject. Ceriotti, however, says that Musk’s timeline is a bold claim mostly meant to arouse interest for spacefaring. He says giving a timeline for such an endeavour is difficult as two of the most crucial factors are unpredictable: urgency and funding.?

Kaku in The Future of Humanity notes that while 99.99 per cent of all species must await their extinction, humans have a choice.

“Unlike all other life-forms on this planet, which must passively await their fate, we humans are the masters of our own destiny. Fortunately, we are now creating the tools that will defy the odds given to us by nature, so that we don’t become one of the 99.99 per cent of life-forms destined for extinction,” writes Kaku.

Such technologies range from advanced rockets to proposed and under-development techniques to transform alien celestial bodies into a place suitable for human habitation — terraforming.?

Besides settling on planets abroad, there is also a case for space mining. As resources, such as minerals, get scarce on Earth by the day, if humans crack space mining, then there is potentially an unlimited supply to be tapped into. This, of course, leads to the questions of space governance.?

While there are treaties and pacts, like the Artemis Accords that India just signed, those are not fully developed, and the trend has been that first people and technology go into space, and then laws and treaties follow, says space policy researcher Pranav R Satyanath.?

“The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 and The Moon Agreement of 1979 prohibit the national appropriation of the Moon and other celestial bodies. However, the United States and its Artemis Accords partners interpret these clauses such that resource extraction does not equate to territory appropriation.?Both the treaties mentioned also prohibit the establishment of military bases or fortifications on the Moon, including a ban on testing of weapons. The Moon Agreement also prohibits the threat or use of force on the Moon,” says Satyanath, Research Associate, Council for Strategic and Defense Research (CSDR).

Such pacts seek to address the concerns of some countries that have seen the ills of colonisation in the past. The proposed settlements in space —colonies— and the proposed mining on Moon or mineral-rich asteroids raise concerns among some quarters that the colonial zeal of the mediaeval era could be replicated in space.?Ceriotti, however, points out that there is one critical difference between the two cases.

“In space, there are no native communities that you would be uprooting. You would be landing and making a base on an uninhabited place,” says Ceriotti.

How to go about spacefaring?

“The human race has existed as a separate species for about 2 million years. Civilization began about 10,000 years ago, and the rate of development has been steadily increasing. If the human race is to continue for another million years, we will have to boldly go where no one has gone before.”?

— Stephen Hawking?

In 1899, a 17-year-old boy read HG Wells’ War of the Worlds and the idea of spacefaring rockets excited him. Unlike many who give up their teenage passions, this boy made rocketry his lifelong passion and professional pursuit. He was Robert Goddard, the Father of Rocketry, who would pioneer science that would send humans to the Moon one day.?

Spacefaring was a costly affair. The?slowing of Cold War competition, the Challenger?disaster (1986), and skyhigh budget led to the closure of US Moon missions and slowing of the general space programme. Then, decades later, came an eccentric billionaire with a vision of private space travel so radical that it was even rejected by the spacefaring icons every space enthusiast adored.

Despite rejection and ridicule, Musk’s SpaceX pioneered reusable rocket technology that reduced the cost of a space launch by at least 40 per cent. The cost could fall further as operations are scaled and technology is finetuned.?

Reaching a planet, however, is just the beginning. Living there —even in an outpost, not a city as Musk says— is something else altogether. There is no replica of Earth with water and air?easily available. One solution is terraforming, which means physically transforming the atmosphere and landscape as per human needs.

Ceriotti of University of Glasgow says that terraforming appears to be a very far-fetched idea but there are approaches nonetheless. While he explains the approaches that range from putting oxygen-producing microorganisms to adding energy into carefully-selected spots of planets or moons, Musk says that we may launch nuclear weapons on the polar regions of Mars to heat up the planet and make it habitable.?

Explaining the science?behind terraforming, Ceriotti tells Outlook, “In the case of Mars, where an atmosphere already exists, there are studies that have hinted that it may be possible to trigger some sort of balance point in its climate?by inducing more heat. The climate of Mars is in a certain equilibrium at the moment, so it does not change. It’s stuck in a temperature range of a maximum of around 20*C to -153*C with a very low density atmosphere and high carbon dioxide. It is possible to change it. By adding energy into particular places, it’s possible to trigger changes and arrive at a different equilibrium with a different kind of atmosphere that’s suitable for human habitation.”

Cellioti, however, acknowledges that this is very far-fetched and a stuff for the future. So does theoretical physicist Kaku. He says that it’s certainly not possible today but could be a reality in the 22nd century.?

“The goal of terraforming Mars exceeds our capability today, but the technologies of the 22nd century will allow us to turn this bleak, frozen desert into a habitable world. We will consider the use of self-replicating robots, superstrong, lightweight nano-materials, and bioengineered crops to drastically cut costs and make Mars into a veritable paradise,” writes Kaku in The Future of Humanity, also predicting that humankind would eventually go beyond Mars and reach?asteroids and moons of Jupiter and Saturn.

How would life be beyond Earth?

Unless humans terraform Mars —which Prof. Kaku of City University of New York says?could only happen in the 22nd century— or any other celestial body, humans would have to live in specialised buildings and wear space suits every time they would have to step out.?

What kind of a life would that be? Simple joys of life like playing with your sibling in the park, taking a walk with your pet, or going for a run, or cycling in your neighbourhood would not be possible. Like the film Martian (2015), you would have to grow everything indoors in an artificially-controlled climate. There would be little scope of error.

Ceriotti of the University of Glasgow says that life would be very primitive in the beginning. It can be compared to pre-historic humankind where the species was laying the groundwork for the advanced species that we are today — figuring out what to eat, how to grow food, how to build houses, etc.?

The phase can be compared to what historian Yuval Noah Harari calls ‘Agricultural Revolution’ around 10,000 years ago when humans took up farming and quit?hunting-gathering, paving way for?voluntary migrations that have now led us to being on the cusp of being a spacefaring race. While it paved the way for us to be what we are today,?the agriculture when it began was back-breaking — literally.?

“From sunrise to sunset humans sowed seeds, watered plants, plucked weeds from the ground and led sheep to prime pastures. This work, they thought, would provide them with more fruit, grain and meat…The body of homo sapiens had not evolved for such tasks. It was adapted to climbing apple trees and running after gazelles, not to clearing rocks and carrying water buckets. Human spines, knees, necks and arches paid the price,” writes Noah Harari in his book Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind.?

A similar fate could await the first space colonisers, but then those who would go there would know what they would be signing up for. They would also not be everyday humans.?

“In the beginning, we would have people on Mars who would be highly-specialised?in what they do. The general public will not be going to Mars because nothing is ready and a whole set of housing and environmental infrastructure would have to be set up there from scratch,” says Ceriotti.?

The chances are that while one generation will pave the way for humans to reach Mars, it would be another generation that would be actually going there, and that in turn would lay the groundwork for another generation to settle. This intergenerational space endeavour would be based on a constant supply of human resources.?

When the first settlements take shape on the Moon or Mars, the people who would be in control rooms of space agencies?are likely in school today and are yet to take up space sciences or aerospace engineering, says space-educator Srimathy Kesan.?

“There is little money in pursuing a career in space sciences in the short-run. It is a field that you join mainly out of passion. For the passion to develop, the promotion of scientific temperament right at the early age is key. After all, school students of today are going to take us to Mars in the future,” says Kesan, Founder and Chief Executive of Space Kidz India, a start-up working on space education that connects school students with ISRO and industry experts.?

When are we going to space?

“Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one cannot live in a cradle forever.”?

― Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

For the champions of interplanetary life, it’s not a question of if but when.?Musk says we could have a city of a million people on Mars by the end of the century. Others have more modest estimates. They say we would definitely have a base on Mars by the dawn of the 22nd century, but a city would still be far from reality.?

Ceriotti of University of Glasgow?says two things are critical to the realisation of this: funding and urgency.

Bhattacharyya of the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) says that motivation and the means have driven human migration and exploration since pre-historic times and “nothing can stop us” from going to space when we have enough means.?

He tells Outlook, “The motivation had two parts: some problems at home and some prospects — even if only a hope or imagination. Means included excess wealth and new technology, for example, better ships, improved navigational tools, etc. for seafaring. All these have brought us where we are now. Thus, when motivation and means are available, we will explore, migrate, and spread. This is our natural tendency. It has nothing to do with conscious thinking, decision, and planning in a longer time scale — although such conscious actions are required in a shorter timescale.

“Thus, when the technology and money are available for going out of our planet, nothing can stop us. The exploration has to start naturally — even though there is no pressing need at the moment. The competition among countries —and even individuals— accelerates the process.”

Bhattacharyya says a human settlement on Mars by the end of this century sounds quite likely, provided a catastrophe, such as war, pandemic, or other disasters, does not stop or delay it.

The main factor to the determination of a timeline is funding, which in turn is decided by the urgency, says Ceriotti.?

In the recent past, the Covid-19 pandemic is an example of how urgency can drive science and?innovation. Money was poured into research and development from all quarters and regulators worked overtime to evaluate and approve vaccines. Thus, Covid-19 vaccines were produced in record time. Moderna, a pioneer in mRNA technology, has said?progress worth 15 years was made in just 12-18 months.?

Ceriotti says there are two such precedents when it comes to space.

“One, the race to the Moon in 1950-60s when NASA's funding reached an all-time high of 4.41 per cent of the entire federal budget of the United States in 1966. Two, the scare of asteroid?Apophis in 2004 which at the time was considered to have a significant risk of colliding with Earth and causing much devastation. Later, it was found that there was no immediate or short-term threat from Apophis,” says Ceriotti.?

Ceriotti adds?that a potential of a global environmental catastrophe, like in the film Interstellar (2014), could also be the driver of such an urgency.?

India is in a unique position to contribute to such spacefaring ambitions of humanity because students here, often from small cities and towns, are full of curiosity and all they need is a push, says Kesan of Space Kidz India.?

“We have paired students from rural areas from all parts of India with space scientists and, so far, such collaborations?have produced 12 balloon satellites, two sub-orbital satellites, and two orbital satellites. Many of these students will likely take up aerospace engineering in college because they have that passion and awareness of opportunities. Scientific temperament at an early age and familiarity with space is key to prepare the next generation of space scientists and engineers,” says Kesan. ?

Kesan, however, is concerned that space is not yet mainstream enough in India. She says that while children have lots of cricketers to look up to while growing up, there are not many space scientists or astronauts who they can look up to — APJ Abdul Kalam and Kalpana Chawla being the few exceptions.

Mentioning the webseries Rocket Boys (2022-23), which portrays the Indian space programme through the eyes of Vikram Sarabhai, Homie J Bhabha, and other iconic Indian scientists who shaped the Indian space story, Kesan says India needs more representation of space and space scientists in the mainstream media so that?the next generation of space scientists can be inspired.?

After all, War of the Worlds put Robert Goddard on the path to be the Father of Rocketry and science fiction of the likes of Issac Asimov fascinated the string field theory co-founder Michio Kaku. Perhaps, Rocket Boys or some yet-to-be made cinematic space odyssey film would ignite some Indian minds too.