China's 1st ICBM Test In Decades: The US Link, Asia-Pacific Region Tensions & No First Use Policy

The Chinese Ministry said the People's Liberation Army (PLA) tested the ICBM's performance and military trainining effective, achieving "desired goals".

In its statement, the ministry noted that the missile fell into expected sea areas. However, it also clarified that this test was a "routine arrangement" in China's annual training plan. "It is in line with international law and practice and is not directed against any country or target," the statement said.

While the latest date of China's domestic ICBM test is unclear, it has been reported that the country has been conducting ICBM tests quietly. Most of these missiles get fired and land within its own territory. Back in 2013, a Chinese defence ministry spokesperson had told reporters that it is normal for China to "conduct scientific research experiments within its territory according to plan", CNN reported.

INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILE

According to the Arms Control Association (ACA), "Ballistic missiles are powered by rockets initially but then they follow an unpowered, free-falling trajectory towards their targets."

Ballistic missiles are classified on the basis of the maximum distance they can travel, the powerful function of their engines (rockets), and the weight of the missile payload.

Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) are long-range ballistic missiles, which are also described as 'strategic ballistic missile' as per ACA. These ICBMs can travel more than 5,500 kilometeres.

According to a research report on ICBMs of Air University Press, "the first reference to the use of rockets dates back to 1232 when Chinese defenders of K'aifung-fu used 'fire arrows' against attacking Mongols. Progress in rocketry was slow, at best, for the next seven centuries".

Why Did China Test Fire An ICBM?

The Chinese Defence Ministry said that this test launch of an ICBM was a "routine arrangement in our annual training plan". This intercontinental ballistic missile -- a DF-41 -- first came into service in 2017 and has an operational range of up to 12,000 - 15,000 km. This latest ICBM has the capability of reaching the United States mainland, South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported.

In its statement, the ministry said that its ICBM test fire achieved the expected purpose. "China notified relevant countries in advance," it added.

Ankit Panda, a nuclear weapons specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote on X, "Unless I'm missing something, I think this is essentially the first time this has happened (and been announced as such) in a long time."

He said that China's statement describing the test fire as 'routine' and 'annual' "seems odd given that they don't do this sort of thing either routinely or annually".

Notably, the US Army in April had deployed its mid-range capability (MRC) missile system during its joint exercise with the Philippines.

SCMP reported that this was the first such weapon's deployment of the US in the Asia-Pacific region since the 1987 intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) treaty between the US and the then Soviet Union that banned land-based missiles of the range 500 km to 5,500 km.

As per a Pentagon report on Chinese military and security development from October, 2023, the PLA Rocket Force is "advancing its long-term modernisation plans to enhance its 'strategic deterrence' capabilities" including that of new ICBMs.

The report, cited by SCMP, added that China has "doubled and continues to grow the number of launchers at most ICBM units".

With this launch, Drew Thompson, a visiting research fellow at Singapore's Lee Kuan Yee School of Public Policy, took to X and said, "Timing is everything."

"The PLA statement claims the launch does not target any country, but there are high levels of tension between China and Japan, Philippines, and of course perpetual tension with Taiwan. This launch is a powerful signal intended to intimidate everyone," he added.

Meanwhile, BBC quoted John Ridge -- a US-based defence analyst -- as saying that China could have conducted the test as a "form of posturing or signalling to the United States".

Tensions In Asia-Pacific Region

The China's ICBM test comes as missile activities have been escalating in the Asia-Pacific region. Beijing has been at tensions with Japan, Philippines and indeed the self-governed Taiwan. Earlier this month, North Korea had conducted several short-range ballistic missile tests, flying towards the Sea of Japan or East Sea.

Following China's test fire of this latest DF-41 ICBM, Japan's Defence Ministry said that its vessels have incurred no damage as of early Wednesday afternoon.

"We will continue to collect and analyse information on the movements of the Chinese military and will take all possible precautions in our vigilance and monitoring," Japanese broadcaster NHK cited the ministry.

China last conducted such a test in May 1980, where it fired a DF-5 -- Beijing's first ICBM -- which flew more than 9,000 km from the Jiuquan satellite launch centre in Gansu's western province, reaching its desired target area in the South Pacific in 30 minutes, SCMP reported.

Tensions between China and the Philippines have also been on the rise given the repeated collision of their ships in disputed waters. Last month, Japan had sent fighter jets after it accused a Chinese 'spy' plane of crossing into its air space, calling it to be an "utterly unacceptable" move, BBC reported.

Then there are strains over China's claims on the self-governed island on Taiwan. The Defence Ministry of Taiwan earlier on Wednesday said that Beijing had been conducting "intensive" missile firing and other drills in the recent past. Reportedly, it also said that Taiwan detected 23 Chinese military aircraft to be operating around its airspace on "long-range missions".

China's routine of sending of ships and aircrafts into Taiwan has been a regular practice.

China's 'No First Use' Policy

In the backdrop of Beijing's latest intercontinental ballistic missile test fire, the country's "no first use" policy has also come under the spotlight.

China, for the longest time, has been maintaining NFU policy. According to the Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, China's nuclear strategy is centered around its deterrence through "assured retaliation".

China's long-standing No First Use policy (NFU) states that "China will never be the first to use a nuclear weapon in a conflict, and only ever in retaliation of a nuclear attack. Chinese doctrine can and will be affected by the choices of other nuclear weapon states."

After its latest ICBM launch, China reaffirmed that it continues to strictly abide by the policy of 'no first use' policy of nuclear weapons.

Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, a spokesperson for Chinese Defence Ministry, said, "China's nuclear policy is very stable, consistent and predictable. We strictly follow a nuclear policy of no first use of nuclear weapons and pursue a nuclear strategy of self-defence."

He said during a media briefing that China has promised to not use or threaten the use of nuclear weapons against no-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free-zones. "China will continue to keep its nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required for national security," Xiaogang added.

Notably, according to Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's paper on 'Understanding Chinese Nuclear Thinking', Beijing's NFU shows that "it has not considered using nuclear weapons to make up for a deficiency in conventional forces, and that it also is not planning to use nuclear weapons in conventional military conflicts".

"The use of nuclear weapons in conventional warfare has not been specifically addressed in official Chinese government documents. But the records of many speeches by top Chinese leaders over the years have shownn their profound understanding of the unavoidable, inhumane, and tragic destruction that would occur -- and especially the impact of that destruction on the civilian population -- if nuclear weapons were used by two warring parties," it added.

The paper added that Chinese top brass, unlike their Western counterparts, do not believe that nuclear weapons could be easily used on the conventional battlefield. "Instead, they believe that the policy of first use of nuclear weapons is in most cases not feasible in practice," it said.