A? single teardrop rolls down Mousumi Stafford’s cheek, the first sign of emotion on her stoic face. Her voice quivers. “The people of Assam who had not so long ago erupted in anger seem to have abandoned the crucial issue. A few political parties are speaking about CAA, but not the people,” she says. “I feel as if my brother’s sacrifice and the sacrifice of four others have gone in vain.” On a tumultuous November evening in 2019, Mousumi’s brother, Sam Stafford, and four other people were killed in police firing on protesters marching against the contentious Citizenship (Amendment) Act. Sam, a passionate musician, was the youngest of the dead. He was only 16.

This election—Assam goes to the polls over three days on March 27, April 1 and 6—the Congress is promising to build a memorial for the “CAA martyrs”, besides vowing to bring a law to nullify the -central legislation that fast-tracks Indian citizenship to “persecuted” non-Muslims from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Months later, the anger and overwhelming sense of -betrayal may have subsided in Assam and the anti--CAA agitation lost steam after the pandemic arrived, but the Congress believes there is still enough heat in the embers to singe the ruling BJP. So do two new political parties, Raijor Dol of jailed peasant leader Akhil Gogoi and Asom Jatiya Parishad led by former student leader Lurinjyoti Gogoi.

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The irony is stark. The Congress—whose governments at the Centre and state had once cracked down brutally on the anti-foreigners agitation in the early 1980s—is now fighting for Assamese sub-nationalism and regionalism. “Congress has reaffirmed and rededicated itself to the commitment that it would uphold Assamese identity in the face of RSS/BJP’s sinister game of diluting all sub-nationalities that grow in the per-iphery,” parliamentarian Pradyut Bordoloi tells Outlook. “Never forget that it was the Congress in Assam, under the leadership of (first chief minister) Lokpriya Gopinath Bordoloi, that foiled the attempt of the British to merge Assam with East Pakistan in 1946.”

The AGP, once the flag-bearer of reg-ionalism, is battling to stay relevant in a political scenario dominated by the BJP, forced to ride piggyback on the saffron party. So much so that AGP founder and former chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta was denied a ticket this time, ost-ensibly for his vocal anti-CAA stand.

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The new citizenship law had opened an old wound in Assam—the fear of being overwhelmed by “outsiders”, who are seen as an existential threat to the language and culture of the natives. In fact, the agitation in Assam began -before the bill became an act and long before Shaheen Bagh turned into the focal point of the anti-CAA agitation in the country. But then, the anger against CAA in Assam does not exactly fit into the all-India binary, but is linked to -“illegal mig-ration” and not the religious identity of those invariably and collectively bracketed as “Bangladeshis”. For those against CAA, giving citizenship to Hindus from Bangladesh will only add to the burden Assam has taken since mig-ration began decades ago—many were brought in by the British as labo-urers, others fled East Pakistan to avoid persecution, more came in search of a livelihood.

Illegal migration, mainly from Bangladesh, is at the heart of the state’s political fabric, the single-biggest—and highly divisive—issue that has made and unmade parties and leaders and shaped social discourses since before Inde-pendence. It also helped the BJP form its first government in the state in 2016. Five years later—and after a contentious exercise to update the National Register of Citizens (NRC)—the BJP is carefully avoiding any mention of CAA or illegal immigration in public rallies, though they are the campaign highlights of the party in West Bengal.

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Now it’s the turn of the Congress to play the saviour. “The turning point came when the BJP government clamped down brutally on the anti-CAA protesters. The people of Assam now know that only the Congress is genuinely concerned about saving the state,” says Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi. The Congress’s CAA-centric campaign also has a drive to collect one lakh ‘gamusas’—the traditional Assamese rectangular piece of cloth -associated with honour, respect and love—with anti-CAA slogans written on them. The Congress plans to put up the gamusas in the proposed CAA memorial if voted to power.

Many, however, don’t see the merit of “flogging a dead horse”, as Harakanta Bartamuly, a farmer in Jorhat, puts it. “What’s the point? 865 young men and women died in the anti-foreigner agitation. What did we gain? How many -foreigners have been deported?” At a roadside tea stall near Nagaon, about 120 km from capital Guwahati, Abdul Hannan (55) ret-orts when asked about CAA: “What about CAA? How does it matter to me? I am struggling to feed my family.” Others, like Bangalore-based Assamese entrepreneur Bedabrata Borah, feel that implementing CAA will be the beg-inning of the end for the small ethnic tribes of the Northeast. “Instead of bringing legislations (under the Assam Accord) to protect our language, culture and heritage, the government has pushed CAA to? protect citizens of a foreign country...voters must strongly dem-and for Assam to be exempted from the purview of CAA,” he says.

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For Congress supporters and the confirmed anti-CAA electorate, the biggest worry appears to be the possibility of a split in anti-BJP votes, with at least three camps vying for the same voters. Sam Stafford’s sister definitely thinks so. “Given the fact that they are all against CAA, they should have fought the elections -together. I am worried about the split in votes,” Mousumi Stafford says. Raijor Dol and Asom Jatiya Parishad have a pre-poll tie-up and Congress is leading an eight-party alliance that includes the AIUDF.

Author and political commentator Samrat Choudhury also believes “the opposition, being -div-ided, will obviously fail to capitalise on the anger against CAA and other -iss-ues. With anti-incumbency votes going three ways, the incumbent will be the beneficiary.”

For the Congress, an -intra-party division over CAA could also undo all the planning and hard work. While the party might gain in the Brahmaputra Valley, in Barak Valley, where Hindu Bengalis are in a majority, there is a lot of support for CAA. And the party’s strongest leader in Barak Valley, former Silchar MP Sushmita Dev, has consistently -refused to speak out against the legislation des-pite the party’s stand. She has also ref-used to drape the “no-CAA” gamusa on herself? like other party leaders, including Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.

For all the talk of anti-CAA anger among the masses, the Congress has not been able to? crack the code within the party.

***

Two-time CM Prafulla Kumar Mahanta is not contesting this election, a first since he became India’s youngest CM in 1985 after winning from Barhampur in Nagaon district. He has represented the constituency for seven consecutive times and served as CM between 1985-90 and 1996-2001.

• 5 Number of times independents have won in Naoboicha constituency in Lakhimpur district since independence.

Down and out

Elections are nerve-wracking, heart-stopping…a case in point is Alok Kumar Ghosh of Mariani, a small town near Jorhat. The former MLA—a businessman and party-hopper-—was hospitalised after his nomination was rejected. The 62-year-old was an MLA for two years after winning a by-election in 2004. Having contested the polls five times since 2001, he lost in 2016 to his Congress rival. He was with the BJP but the party denied him a ticket this time. He then joined the newly floated Asom Jatiya Parishad and filed his nomination. But it was rejected as two pages were missing. Known for philanthropy, he has been running a ‘NaMo Canteen’ since 2018 and offering cooked food and rations to the poor during the pandemic.

By Anupam Bordoloi in Guwahati