Consider the following. First, bef-ore Covid-19, 50 per cent of rural India’s sch-ool-go-i--ng students in Class V cou--ld read a Class II textbook. This is data the Ann--ual Survey of Education Report (Rural) has highligh-ted since 2005. Second, prim-ary schools in some parts of India have been clo-s-ed for over 600 days, even though it is re-cognised that early--age education is critical to the future lea--rning trajectory of a chi-ld. My own primary sc-h-ool-going kids in Del-hi last ent-ered their school gate in Mar-ch 2020. India today has earned the unique disti-n-ction of the longest pandemic-in-d-u-ced sch-ool clo--sures in the world, with Uganda and Bolivia for company. Third, digital inequality is real and onl-i-ne education remains a privilege of the few. The 2021 ASER survey sho-ws that households of only 68 per cent school-going students own sma-rtph-o-nes. Over a quarter of these stude-nts do not have acc-ess to these smart-pho-nes, and therefore had no scho-oling for nearly two years. In Septe-m-ber 2021, a sur-vey of 1,400 school child-ren in und-er-privileged homes across 15 states by eco-no-mists Jean Dreze, Reetika Khe-ra and others, found mer-e-ly 8 per cent rural and 24 per cent urban children, had acc-ess to regular “online” education. ?

As a parent, I have witnessed the emo--tional, psychological and educational cost prolonged school closure has had on my young children. Studying in a Zoom room is no substit-ute for a classroom. We will never make up for what they’ve lost. But at lea-st my kids have the Zoom room. Most of India does not have this privil-ege. An ASER surv-ey in Kar-nataka, done before the second wave—the only comp-a-rative data we have on learning levels before and during the pandemic—highlights the gravity of what we face. In 2018, 19.2 per cent Cla-ss III stu-dents in rur-al Karnataka were at grade level (i.e., they cou-ld read a Class II textb-o-ok). It dropped to 9.8 per cent in 2020. In 2018, 26.3 per cent students could do simple subtraction. In 2020, a mere 17.3 per cent could do the same.

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These losses are not going to be easy to address. In an import-a-nt study, economist and my CPR col--league Jis-h--nu Das and others trace the long-term fallout of four months of school closure after the 2005 eart-h-quake in Pak--istan. They fou-nd just four mon--ths of school clos-ures resul-ted in persist-ent learning losses thr-ough the stu--dent’s school life and estimate that if these losses continue into adu-lt life, children cou-ld sta-nd to lose 15 per cent of their life-time earni-ngs. Now consider the effect nearly two yea-rs of school closures could cause. ?

Our education system is best described as a sor--t-ing mechanism, where foc-us is on, as Nobel lau-re-a-tes Abhi-jit Ban-erjee and Est-her Duflo desc-ribe, “teaching to the top of the class”. It works for the “best” students. After all, India produces some of the world’s brightest. The problem has alw--ays been for the vast majority who are left beh-ind. Eco---nomist Lant Pritchett est-imates that four of five children who start the sch--ool year unable to read, will lik-e-ly make no significant progress on reading thro-ugh the year. Low levels of educatio-nal attainment is one reason for persistent inequ-ality in India. Des-pite overall reduction in poverty, intergeneratio-nal upward mobility in India is low. Those born poor are likely to stay poor, as they are unable to realise their full capability. When inequ-ities are entrenched, growth drags. Consider what two years of school closure will do to wid-en this gap. This is Ind-ia’s ine-quality challenge. ?

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All this is surmountable if we as a society come together to make education a national priority. But the muted outrage to two years of sch---ool clos-ure, the alacrity with which we have res-umed soc-ial and economic activity while insi-s-ting schools remain closed, and the complete imp-unity of our political class who have been com--p-li-cit in these decisions, leave me with little hope. Our celebr-a-ted demographic dividend is today a ticking time bomb. And we have only ourselves to blame.

(Views expressed are personal)

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Yamini Aiyar is the president and CEO of Centre for Policy Research, Delhi