Mizoram is on the verge of a pivotal Assembly election scheduled for November 7, featuring three prominent contenders: the incumbent Mizo Nationalist Front (MNF), alongside two formidable opposition heavyweights, Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) and the Congress Party, all striving to secure the coveted position of power. They are immersed in intense competition, mobilising all their resources despite the constraints of limited campaign time.

In the last Assembly election in 2018, the Mizoram Nationalist Front (MNF) achieved victory, clinching a majority with 26 out of 40 available seats after two consecutive terms in opposition. The Zoram People's Movement (ZPM) made its debut, securing eight seats, while the then-incumbent Indian National Congress (INC) managed just five seats, and the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a single seat.

The Indian National Congress, which had held power for two consecutive terms, was unseated by the MNF in 2018, securing a mere five seats in the process. The emergence of a third political front, known as ZPM, has proven to be a significant turning point. Despite its nascent stage, ZPM has achieved a remarkable feat by securing a greater number of seats than the INC, notably securing more seats than the MNF in the capital city, Aizawl. In a remarkable display of ambition, the organisation threw its hat into the electoral ring just a few months after its inception in 2017. It evolved into a well-structured and mature political entity over time, solidifying its position as a prominent player in Mizoram's political landscape. Mizoram's political landscape had long been defined by a bipolarity between the MNF and Congress, with other fringe parties unable to alter this dominant dynamic. However, ZPM's emergence has shifted these political dynamics.

The upcoming election is brimming with intrigue as the INC, striving to rectify past missteps, has undergone substantial internal restructuring, signalling a concerted effort to reclaim lost ground. Under the leadership of Pu Lalsawta, renowned for his financial acumen, the party promises enhanced economic governance during challenging times. Benefiting from its status as the venerable "grand old party," the Congress enjoys a well-established presence across the state, facilitating their initiatives in reorganisation and reform. On October 16, Rahul Gandhi visited Mizoram and had a campaign rally, which captured significant attention. He emphasised the forthcoming election as a do-or-die situation, pledging a fierce battle to unseat the incumbent MNF and thwart any prospects of the BJP's entry. In Mizoram, a narrative has been woven, underscoring the significance of voting the Congress into power to counter the BJP and its allies. This narrative is rooted in the anxiety that comes with the Hindutva ideology—the fear of intolerance towards religious diversity under the BJP’s regime. The Congress party positions itself as the custodian of secularism, aiming to protect Mizo culture and religion, which many perceive to be under threat, particularly among the Mizo-Christian community.

The incumbent political party, MNF, are yet to complete their first term, and in a state where unseating a government after two terms is a peculiar tradition, the MNF hopes not to be an exception as it seeks a second term. However, the incumbent carries the weight of unfulfilled promises and economic challenges into the election, making them a target for criticism, not only from their opponents but also from the neutral voters. The unfulfilled commitment revolves around the pledge to provide a sum of 3 lakhs to each beneficiary under the Social and Economic Development Program (SEDP). Adding to the predicament, the latest government data has unveiled that Mizoram grapples with the highest debt burden in India, a significant 56.7 per cent relative to its Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP). Concurrently, their time in office coincided with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, which served as a pivotal factor in justifying claims of subpar governance and financial mismanagement.

However, their handling of the refugee crisis and their stance on the Manipur conflict could potentially serve as a trump card in the upcoming election. The MNF, self-proclaimed custodians of Mizo nationalism, firmly believe in the concept of Mizo that goes beyond the confines of state boundaries. The people from Myanmar seeking refuge in Mizoram due to the military coup were warmly embraced due to their shared affinity. Additionally, their solidarity with their brethren in Manipur during the ongoing conflict has been influential, capitalising on nationalist sentiment to garner support. However, one reason their nationalist rhetoric doesn't hold the same appeal as in the past is the MNF's continued alliance with the BJP, a party accused of causing unrest in Manipur. The silence of Prime Minister Modi, even after almost six months of conflict, has not resonated positively with the people.

Drawing from the previous election results, it's likely that the ZPM will be the main contender as the primary opposition. Furthermore, this political party is gaining traction among impartial voters due to their dedication to a “novel policy” approach aimed at discarding the previous governance methods plagued by multiple inadequacies. Simultaneously, this party perceives itself as the sole entity capable of crafting fresh strategies, while the other two parties are viewed as established choices that might not bring about substantial changes in governance. As a relatively new political party, devoid of any prior track record, this new party possesses a distinct edge in its ability to entice the electorate to cast their votes in its favour, in contrast to the two established parties that have accumulated a plethora of shortcomings and deficiencies. Despite its resolution to form a government independently and its avowal not to align with the BJP, accusations persist that it may consider such an alliance in the event of a hung Assembly. These speculations have gained traction, particularly in light of the BJP's apparent distancing from its ally, the MNF. The BJP has also launched a series of attacks against the MNF and asserted that no government can be formed without its participation. Given this evolving scenario, the ZPM emerges as the sole regional party that the BJP is considering as a viable option.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been making persistent efforts to gain a foothold in Mizoram. In the last election, the party could only manage to secure a single seat,?but in the upcoming election, they are desperately trying to penetrate the barrier to secure as many seats as possible. Though they have already consolidated their dominance in North East India, currently remaining in power in most of the states in the northeast, Mizoram still remains an exception since the BJP as a political party still lacks the kind of influence it has with the other northeastern states. But in the upcoming election, there’s a possibility of an increase in their vote share, especially within the Autonomous District Council (ADC) areas. This is likely because of the growing discontent regarding the status of their autonomy, particularly on the financial aspect. The BJP is making overtures to the ADCs with promises of direct funding. While there is a high probability of the BJP surpassing its past electoral results, the party faces a challenging road in securing votes beyond the Autonomous District Councils (ADCs). This challenge arises from the prevailing negative public perception of the BJP, primarily stemming from concerns related to the Hindutva ideology, which is often perceived as contrary to the principles of secularism.

(Anthony Lalchhuanmawia is a PhD Scholar at IIT Bombay. Lalhriatpuia Sailo is an Independent Researcher.)